Alabama has punched their ticket to the national championship game and will take on the winner of the Clemson-Ohio State Sugar Bowl matchup. The Crimson Tide will be favored against either the Tigers or Buckeyes. We will have the opening point spread, odds and our national championship prediction as soon as the matchup is set.
Clemson will need a sizable comeback to have a chance at another installment of their regular championship battle with Alabama. The Buckeyes opened as more than a touchdown underdog against the Tigers, and the spread would likely be even larger if Ohio State holds off Clemson.
All eyes will be on the health of Justin Fields if the Buckeyes can secure the victory. The quarterback sustained an injury on a big hit against Clemson but was able to play through the pain against the Tigers. Fields would have a little more than a week to rest before taking on the Crimson Tide on January 11.
Upsets Are Rare During the College Football Playoff Era
If you’re looking to bet with a historical perspective in mind, it will be hard to pick against Bama. According to ESPN’s Chris “The Bear” Fallica, Clemson has been the only team that has been able to pull off an upset since the College Football Playoff started. This would change if Ohio State wins the Sugar Bowl.
“In the last 3+ years – ten games – there has been just one upset in a CFP game – Clemson over Alabama in the 2018 Championship Game,” Fallica tweeted.
Bettors do not necessarily need Clemson or Ohio State to win as either team can cover what is expected to be a sizable spread while still losing to Alabama. We saw this with Notre Dame and Florida who Bama defeated, but their opponents both managed to cover the spread.
Heading into the semifinal matchups, Alabama was the national championship favorite at -180 followed by Clemson who had +235 odds while Ohio State was third at +550, per OddsShark. Notre Dame was viewed in Vegas as a distant fourth with long +2200 championship odds even before their blowout loss to Alabama.
Alabama is 12-0 straight up and 8-4 against the spread so far this season. Clemson has struggled against the spread going just 5-6 this season prior to their matchup with Ohio State. The Buckeyes have had the smallest sample size to examine at just 3-3 against the spread in their six matchups this season.
The Big Ten and Pac-12 got a later start to the season than the other conferences. Ohio State also had several of their scheduled games canceled for COVID-related reasons, including their annual rivalry matchup against Michigan.
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